Der Niedergang Al Qaidas

[schlammtreiber]

Nach über einem Jahrzehnt zeichnet sich ein Abflauen des "Global War on Terror" ab... in Washington macht man sich Gedanken darüber, ab wann die Beschäftigung mit AQ in den Hintergrund treten wird:

For the First Time, Obama Official Sketches Out End to War on Terror
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/11/jeh-johnson-terrorism/

Neither the George W. Bush nor Barack Obama White House ever laid out a vision for what an end to the war on terrorism would actually look like. But as Obama prepares for his second term in office, one of his top defense officials is arguing that there is an end in sight, and laying out conditions for when the U.S. will reach it.

"On the present course, there will come a tipping point," Jeh Johnson, the Pentagon's top lawyer, told the Oxford Union in the U.K. on Friday, "a tipping point at which so many of the leaders and operatives of al-Qaida and its affiliates have been killed or captured, and the group is no longer able to attempt or launch a strategic attack against the United States, such that al-Qaida as we know it, the organization that our Congress authorized the military to pursue in 2001, has been effectively destroyed." At that point, "our efforts should no longer be considered an armed conflict."(...)

Dass Al Qaida auf dem absteigenden Ast ist, ist schon seit einiger Zeit deutlich. Der Tod Osama bin Ladens war nur der symbolische Höhepunkt. Die Organisation ist personell stark geschwächt und in islamischen Ländern zunehmend unpopulär.

Aus dem Archiv:

"Al Qaeda Loses Its Way"
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/22003/al_qaeda_loses_its_way.html?breadcrumb=%2Fregion%2F150%2Fmiddle_east%3Fgroupby%3D2%26filter%3D20%26page%3D2

After all, the death of bin Laden is only one barometer of success against a movement that might have been so much larger than its leader. Al Qaeda still exists but is lifeless; finding its adherents is more akin to whack-a-mole than some existential clash of civilizations. Fortunately, new soundings from Muslim nations reveal that the terrorist mastermind wasn't so special after all. He only had one life.

A largely ignored Pew Research Center poll released this week points to a simple truth: Bin Laden's movement is "widely unpopular among Muslim publics." He isn't totally unpopular, but he isn't a rock star and his movement lacks the majority support he once enjoyed across a lot of the Islamic world. In Indonesia, Egypt, Pakistan, Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories, huge majorities reject Al Qaeda and its ideology. Only single digit percentages (mostly in the 1 to 2 percent range) view Al Qaeda "very favorably."

Every other year since 2003, Pew has conducted polling of Muslim countries. The nonprofit research center avoids the myopic focus of most American polls of foreign nations that ask the self-absorbed question: Do you like us? Instead, Pew has asked a simple question about bin Laden and his movement: Do you like them?

The answer should be comforting to Americans. Though Islamic parties are winning elections in the Middle East, populations are not turning toward the anti-Western violence that defined Al Qaeda. Bin Laden's death would have meant little had his ideology taken hold throughout the Islamic world. If that had been the case, his death would have only inspired more recruits, more leaders, and a never-ending war.
(...)
Now, the trends are clear throughout the region; not only has Al Qaeda lost its leadership, it has lost its way. This is a pretty important strategic victory for the United States.
(...)